Lebanon has been on the decline for sometime now and there is a need for a full reset of the country . Some of you will ask why ? Isn’t the current government up to the task? Hasn’t it accomplished in 3 months what the others could not accomplish in years? I will not dive into the details and defend one Lebanese faction against the other , what I will be discussing in this article is an objective logical point of view for 3 scenarios.

For the past 30 years or so , subsequent governments have perfectly managed to destroy Lebanon and suck out its juice. This has reached a stage where the currency has devaluated , banks are ripping-off their depositors  , and unemployment rate is at a staggering 60%.

The current government has been born out of a vacuum created by the fall of the previous one due to pressure from the people related to  the catastrophic situation of the country . The funny thing about this new government is that it had to be approved by the same political powers that formed previous one though people were asking for a radical change and a government made up of neutral technocrats . Members of the parliament were smuggled into the meeting to approve the new government while people were closing down the streets so that the minimum number required to have a legal session will not be achieved . Riots broke all over Lebanon , and people were clear that they want back the mandate given to the current political system as it is no longer valid because the country is in a total mess. The Lebanese people  said “No” to what was happening but they were only met with deaf ears, as usual.

So now that the government is up and running , I will be taking you through  3 realistic  scenarios where each one is an amazing recipe for a perfect disaster.

Scenario 1 :  The newly formed Lebanese government fails in implementing a reformative agenda (irrespective of this agenda and if it is really going to save Lebanon or not) . In this scenario , the people will revolt again , streets will be closed , and chaos will be all over the place. This is the worst case scenario for Lebanon which will surely send it down the drain forever as it will be impossible to create a new government again before doomsday.

 

Scenario 2 : The newly formed Lebanese government will succeed in implementing a reformative agenda. Wow! this sounds great as the government is on the right track for reforms , I want this scenario to happen because it will be the start to a better Lebanon . Think again,  this will surely reflect super bad on the political elites and they will not allow it to happen . To put it in simple words , “this newly formed government will not be allowed to succeed because it will be a living proof for others failures” as such things will get even worse and people will take to the streets again their demands for reform and they will push to change the government  as it has failed them…. again 🙂 .Good luck !

 

Scenario 3 : The newly formed government will maintain the current status quo of back and forth non-productive discussions with the existing political powers. This is the same thing  as pumping morphine into the body of a badly injured person that is bleeding heavily just to relieve  it from the  pain without attending to the injury . The bad injury and bleeding are still there and sooner or later , that person is going to die without feeling any pain . Again , people will be super frustrated as nothing is changing and  things will get worse , the streets will be filled again with demonstrators asking for reforms but this time it might get more messy .

 

In conclusion , whatever scenario is going to happen , it will not be up to the expectation of the Lebanese people  who are tired , broke , hungry and looking for a job . What I can tell you is that the doors of doom will open wide, hell will break loose and praying will be the only way out or ….. maybe , civil war 2.0 (NO!! I am not advocating it) . It is not a secret that 45 days ago when the governor of the central bank was politically attacked , the ingredients of civil war started heating-up super quickly and then magically things were cooled down . The significance of this person is that he is the  gate keeper for all the dirty laundry of every single person in Lebanon except those who are broke , hungry and are looking for a positive change .If he falls , even all the washing machines in this world will not be able to clean this laundry and the beast will be out loose .

 

 

 

Note -> All of the above images except for the one above are screen shots from the live TV coverage during the 2020 riots in downtown Beirut.